We remain extremely cautious on the machinery sector.
As foreign economies deal with weaker exports to the U.S and Europe, industrial customers are cutting back on capital spending. Equipment orders are decelerating in almost every end-market -- from machines used in construction, infrastructure, agriculture to base metal projects.
There are several data points that help to paint the picture of a global slowdown. Japan's core machine orders fell 4.4% in October, and fell in 6 of the first 10 months of the year. What’s more, according to the cabinet office in Japan, overseas orders fell a whopping 37.2% in the same month. In November, Japanese industrial production fell 8.1% sequentially, and 16.2% y-o-y.
Also, according to the VDMA machine makers association, German plant and machinery orders fell in October, with a decline in export orders.
When looking at the macro backdrop for industrial production and machinery orders, we expect to see a continued slowdown in capital spending.
OPPORTUNITIES
While the credit crunch and slower economic growth dampens private sector spending, fiscal expenditures appear ready to play a counter-cyclical role. China announced a rather large stimulus package in November.
Also, we expect the U.S government to pass a stimulus package in 2009, as well. The recent rally in certain construction-machinery stocks has likely been in anticipation of higher U.S public infrastructure spending by the incoming administration.
There may be a silver lining amid the current economic slowdown. Central bankers have gone from raising interest rates and fighting inflation to slashing rates and flooding the system with liquidity. These monetary conditions may eventually help to stabilize commodity prices. We would become more constructive on stocks such as Freeport McMoRan (FCX), on signs reflation measures were working their way into the real economy.
Saturday, January 3, 2009
NSW pubs raking in $1.1 billion from poker machines
THE state's greediest pubs are raking in a staggering $1.1 billion from poker machines each year, with each machine in Western Sydney taking almost four times the annual average wage.
The revelations have prompted calls for access to pokies to be slashed and a reduction in the number of machines in lower socio-economic areas.
Documents reveal the $1.1 billion was collected by the top 500 hotels - more than two-thirds of the total pub poker machine revenue statewide, equating to a $200 loss by every adult, The Daily Telegraph reports.
The Australian Hotel Association defended the amount saying clubs had three times the number of machines of hotels.
The top 25 gaming pubs alone raked in just under $150 million in revenue, with all but two in Sydney's west or southwest.
The pubs took an average of $6 million each from the cap of 30 machines in the 12 months to September 2008 - $200,000 per machine.
The amount is almost four times the average yearly wage and more than three times the average pub poker machine yield of $64,000.
Gambling experts are now demanding the Government regulate the gaming hot spots in the same way they cracked down on problem drinking venues.
With the economic crisis set to get worse, it is predicted more and more people will try to gamble their way out of poverty and debt.
Salvation Army gambling rehabilitation head Gerard Byrne said there was no doubt western Sydney had more problem gamblers and both the addicts and their families were constantly seeking welfare assistance.
He said there needed to be increased restrictions on the hours gamblers could access poker machines and a tougher Government approach to problem areas, such as a reduction in machine numbers.
Mr Byrne said the greatest concern was with the for-profit hotel gaming sector rather than the technically non-profit clubs.
While clubs overall have more poker machines and reap more money from them, each machine is not as heavily used and they are not intended to make a profit for the business.
However Australian Hotels Association CEO Sally Fielke said this was because the clubs had three times as many machines to go around.
"The hotel industry participates in and is proactive in gambling harm prevention programs such as GameCare and other gambling counselling services to assist the less than 1 per cent of the population who have a problem with gambling,'' she said.
However Mr Byrne warned the tough economic times could increase problem gambling.
"We see gamblers try to supplement their income by getting that next big win to pull themselves out of the financial mire.''
Already pubs and clubs must shut down poker machines for six hours. However they can apply for an exemption to this and shut down for only three on Saturdays, Sundays and public holidays.
The revelations have prompted calls for access to pokies to be slashed and a reduction in the number of machines in lower socio-economic areas.
Documents reveal the $1.1 billion was collected by the top 500 hotels - more than two-thirds of the total pub poker machine revenue statewide, equating to a $200 loss by every adult, The Daily Telegraph reports.
The Australian Hotel Association defended the amount saying clubs had three times the number of machines of hotels.
The top 25 gaming pubs alone raked in just under $150 million in revenue, with all but two in Sydney's west or southwest.
The pubs took an average of $6 million each from the cap of 30 machines in the 12 months to September 2008 - $200,000 per machine.
The amount is almost four times the average yearly wage and more than three times the average pub poker machine yield of $64,000.
Gambling experts are now demanding the Government regulate the gaming hot spots in the same way they cracked down on problem drinking venues.
With the economic crisis set to get worse, it is predicted more and more people will try to gamble their way out of poverty and debt.
Salvation Army gambling rehabilitation head Gerard Byrne said there was no doubt western Sydney had more problem gamblers and both the addicts and their families were constantly seeking welfare assistance.
He said there needed to be increased restrictions on the hours gamblers could access poker machines and a tougher Government approach to problem areas, such as a reduction in machine numbers.
Mr Byrne said the greatest concern was with the for-profit hotel gaming sector rather than the technically non-profit clubs.
While clubs overall have more poker machines and reap more money from them, each machine is not as heavily used and they are not intended to make a profit for the business.
However Australian Hotels Association CEO Sally Fielke said this was because the clubs had three times as many machines to go around.
"The hotel industry participates in and is proactive in gambling harm prevention programs such as GameCare and other gambling counselling services to assist the less than 1 per cent of the population who have a problem with gambling,'' she said.
However Mr Byrne warned the tough economic times could increase problem gambling.
"We see gamblers try to supplement their income by getting that next big win to pull themselves out of the financial mire.''
Already pubs and clubs must shut down poker machines for six hours. However they can apply for an exemption to this and shut down for only three on Saturdays, Sundays and public holidays.
Monday, October 6, 2008
Thunder Mountain Gold Announces an Intercept of Sulfide Mineralization at Their South Mountain Property
BOISE, Idaho--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Thunder Mountain Gold, Inc. (OTCBB:THMG) today announced that Thunder Mountain Resources, Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary (Company), has completed their first core hole in its planned exploration program at their South Mountain Mine, Owyhee County, Idaho. The hole (DMEA 2) encountered a zone of mineralization from 656 feet to 705 feet with approximately 40 feet of the core consisting of massive sulfide consisting of sphalerite, chalcopyrite and pyrrhotite - similar in character to that mined on the Sonneman and Laxey Levels. The target for the hole was the down dip extension of this mineralization approximately 280 to 300 feet below the Sonneman Level. It is believed that the intercept proves that the mineralization extends well below the existing workings. The hole was drilled from the surface and was completed to a total depth of 785 feet. It was designed to test the down dip extension of the DMEA 2 and peripheral high-grade mineralization encountered on both the Sonneman and Laxey mine levels.
The intercept has not been analyzed as yet. Once the core has been split, it will be sent to ALS Chemex Labs in Elko, Nevada for analysis. It is expected that the analysis will be completed by early November, but Management believes that it will be similar in value to the DMEA 2 mineralized zone encountered on the Sonneman Level where a bulk sample test conducted in the mid-1980s by South Mountain Mines, Inc. had values of 22.87% zinc, 0.50% copper, 0.47 lead, 0.12 ounce per ton (opt) gold and 3.3 opt silver. The DMEA 2 zone on the Sonneman Level was extensively drilled by South Mountain Mines and a zone of massive sulfide approximately 75 feet by 50 feet was defined. This zone is within a broader zone of mineralization that was intercepted by the Sonneman Level tunnel and drilling that is approximately 300 feet long and locally 50+ feet thick.
The core rig is being moved to a second surface site to drill test the Texas mineralized zone approximately 300 feet down dip of the Sonneman Level. The Texas mineralization, located some 900 feet east of the DMEA 2 zone, was defined and partially mined by the underground mining conducted during World War II through the mid-1980s. This mineralized zone extends was mined from the Laxey Level to the surface, and has been encountered on the Sonneman Level, some 300 vertical feet below the Laxey Level. The total down dip mineralization of the Texas Ore Shoot has been identified over some 750+ feet from the surface to the Sonneman Level.
In addition to the drilling, the Company has completed the portal and tunnel rehabilitation of the Sonneman Tunnel. Access is now possible from the portal to a caved area near the Texas mineralized area. Confirmatory channel samples are planned for the DMEA 2 and other zones along the Sonneman Level.
Jim Collord, President of Thunder Mountain Gold, said of preliminary drill results, “We are excited by the intercept of what we believe is significant sulfide mineralization within the DMEA 2 drill hole. Subject to verification, it may well prove that the favorable host marble horizon and mineralization extends well below any high-grade mineralization encountered by the previous underground workings. We are guardedly optimistic that after the assay reports are analyzed the results could enhance the resource defined by previous operators. We are optimistic that the resources outlined in the Kleinfelder technical report can be expanded well below the 150-foot depth cut off below the Sonneman Level that was used for their resource calculation. We are anxious to verify our visual observation of the sulfide intercept with the upcoming analytical work.”
About Thunder Mountain Gold, Inc.:
Thunder Mountain Gold is an exploration company focused on the generation of precious and base metal projects in the Western United States, Mexico, and Alaska. A 73-year old company, Thunder Mountain Gold performs its own natural resource exploration and generates value for shareholders by aggressively developing high-grade, high-quality precious and base metal resources in politically stable mining regions.
Forward-Looking Statements: Statements made which are not historical facts, such as anticipated production, exploration results, costs or sales performance are "forward-looking statements", and involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected, anticipated, expected or implied. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, metals prices volatility, volatility of metals production, exploration project uncertainties, industrial minerals market conditions and project development risks. Refer to the Company's Periodic Filings for a more detailed discussion of factors that may impact expected future results. Thunder Mountain Gold undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements.
Cautionary Note to Investors - The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) permits mining companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only those mineral deposits that a company can economically and legally extract or produce.
The intercept has not been analyzed as yet. Once the core has been split, it will be sent to ALS Chemex Labs in Elko, Nevada for analysis. It is expected that the analysis will be completed by early November, but Management believes that it will be similar in value to the DMEA 2 mineralized zone encountered on the Sonneman Level where a bulk sample test conducted in the mid-1980s by South Mountain Mines, Inc. had values of 22.87% zinc, 0.50% copper, 0.47 lead, 0.12 ounce per ton (opt) gold and 3.3 opt silver. The DMEA 2 zone on the Sonneman Level was extensively drilled by South Mountain Mines and a zone of massive sulfide approximately 75 feet by 50 feet was defined. This zone is within a broader zone of mineralization that was intercepted by the Sonneman Level tunnel and drilling that is approximately 300 feet long and locally 50+ feet thick.
The core rig is being moved to a second surface site to drill test the Texas mineralized zone approximately 300 feet down dip of the Sonneman Level. The Texas mineralization, located some 900 feet east of the DMEA 2 zone, was defined and partially mined by the underground mining conducted during World War II through the mid-1980s. This mineralized zone extends was mined from the Laxey Level to the surface, and has been encountered on the Sonneman Level, some 300 vertical feet below the Laxey Level. The total down dip mineralization of the Texas Ore Shoot has been identified over some 750+ feet from the surface to the Sonneman Level.
In addition to the drilling, the Company has completed the portal and tunnel rehabilitation of the Sonneman Tunnel. Access is now possible from the portal to a caved area near the Texas mineralized area. Confirmatory channel samples are planned for the DMEA 2 and other zones along the Sonneman Level.
Jim Collord, President of Thunder Mountain Gold, said of preliminary drill results, “We are excited by the intercept of what we believe is significant sulfide mineralization within the DMEA 2 drill hole. Subject to verification, it may well prove that the favorable host marble horizon and mineralization extends well below any high-grade mineralization encountered by the previous underground workings. We are guardedly optimistic that after the assay reports are analyzed the results could enhance the resource defined by previous operators. We are optimistic that the resources outlined in the Kleinfelder technical report can be expanded well below the 150-foot depth cut off below the Sonneman Level that was used for their resource calculation. We are anxious to verify our visual observation of the sulfide intercept with the upcoming analytical work.”
About Thunder Mountain Gold, Inc.:
Thunder Mountain Gold is an exploration company focused on the generation of precious and base metal projects in the Western United States, Mexico, and Alaska. A 73-year old company, Thunder Mountain Gold performs its own natural resource exploration and generates value for shareholders by aggressively developing high-grade, high-quality precious and base metal resources in politically stable mining regions.
Forward-Looking Statements: Statements made which are not historical facts, such as anticipated production, exploration results, costs or sales performance are "forward-looking statements", and involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected, anticipated, expected or implied. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, metals prices volatility, volatility of metals production, exploration project uncertainties, industrial minerals market conditions and project development risks. Refer to the Company's Periodic Filings for a more detailed discussion of factors that may impact expected future results. Thunder Mountain Gold undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements.
Cautionary Note to Investors - The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) permits mining companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only those mineral deposits that a company can economically and legally extract or produce.
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